2024 Preview

Photo Credit: Darryl Webb, Associated Press

We are rapidly approaching the start of the 2024 NASCAR season with the Busch Light Clash at the LA Coliseum just a little over three weeks away. As we speed towards the start of the 2024 season, I wanted to take some time to get back into the swing of things with this blog. Last year was tough to commit to the time. My wife and I started job hunting last January and relocated in April to North Carolina. By the time we were settled into our new jobs and new life it was nearly September. So, with this year, I hope to be more engaged with this site, attend a race (or two), and be better about jotting down my thoughts here. Maybe not every week, but more often this year. With that, let's look to what I think are five of the biggest things to watch in 2024.

Can Chase Elliott Rebound:

It's obvious, 2023 was a crap year for the 9 team. Granted, Chase missed several races for injury and one for a deserved suspension after hooking Hamlin into the wall during the Coca-Cola 600. But even glancing over those incidents, the 9 car was never consistently quick, rarely unloaded with speed, and seemed to be mired in 7th to 12th place most races. That is respectable for most teams. However, for the 2020 champs, 5 time winner in 2022 and regular season champion in 2022, and a Hendrick Chevy, last year was not up to par. Chase, Alan, and the whole team know that, but can they rebound in 2023? I say sort of.

Chevy is stuck with this body for at least another year, maybe two before they change cars with the Camaro going away. But, other Chevy teams did just fine with it last year and I expect the same in 2024. With that, Chase is expected to be in the car for all the races in 2024 (I highly doubt many, if any, ski trips are planned during the season). It appears in a a few late season and off season comments that the Dawsonville, GA native knows what is ahead of him and expected of him in 2024. I expect Chase and the NAPA team find victory lane three times in 2024 and cap it off top 10 in points, likely with an exit in the Round of 8.

Legacy Motor Club Switches to Toyota:

It's no surprise that Legacy Motor Club is switching after comments their leadership made recently about getting Tier 3 support from Chevrolet. Not sure how true that is, but visually it makes sense. Erik Jones, while not Kyle Larson, is a damn good driver and was clearly wheeling a 25th place car to contention several times the last few years including his 2022 win at the Southern 500. And Noah Gragson, during his brief stint in the 42 car, was atrocious most days and acceptable at best; performance across the team improved over the summer and fall months, but still wasn't at levels that I presume Maury Gallagher and Jimmie Johnson demand and expect. The switch to Toyota (announced last May) seems to be a good fit for both that's generating a lot of excitement.

With that being said, there will definitely be growing pains and learning curves. Even as reported in Kelly Crandall's article in RACER, Legacy will be receiving Tier 1 support from Toyota. And while that sounds nice, and is nice for Legacy, that comes with a huge learning curve. Drivers should start running better, and running top 10 is different than 15th to 25th. Engineers and crew members will have to learn a new car - being that the Toyota engine will run slightly different than a Chevy, and there are expected aerodynamic differences between the two bodies. Toss in a new driver in John Hunter Nemecheck and the Legacy folks will have a lot of new to deal with in 2024. But, by all accounts they seem prepared, eager, and excited for 2024. Expect them to be regular contenders and maybe sneaking out a win or two throughout the season. Oh, and Jimmie is back for a few races in 2024.

Stewart-Haas Racing:

What a conundrum this team is, but, as Tony Stewart himself says, it's a team of racers. SHR appears to be completing a complete overhaul. Rebranding. New drivers. New sponsors. And rumors of a new manufacture in the next few years (those appear to be unfounded at this point). Yet, they are keeping us all on our toes. It appears Tony and Gene Haas are prepared to do whatever it takes to get back to their winning ways. And boy do they need to get back ASAP. It has been quite the struggle for SHR since 2020, and that even ended on such a bad note. It's time they get back to victory lane in droves.

However, that is going to be easier said than done. Preece and Briscoe (driver 14 is the longest tenured driver at SHR) have not been lighting it up. They've had decent performances, shown they can contend, and Briscoe snagged his first Cup win in 2022. But aside from flashes in the pan, there's not much to work with out of what should be a top Cup series team. And from my fan perspective, there seem to be a load of things that are not going right and causing the decline. But, they are coming out swinging in 2024 adding two new drivers, Josh Berry (likely hottest free agent in 2023) and the embattled, but experienced Noah Gragson. Couple that with an engaged Tony Stewart before the NHRA season begins, a complete rebrand, and a swagger and bravado that only Smoke can bring to the NASCAR world, they may be trending in the right direction for success in a few years. For 2024, I expect at least two of their drivers make it into the playoffs. Take your pick of the two, but I expect them to be going all out for wins this year.

Justin Haley x Rick Ware Racing:

This is still the most odd to me. I recall listening to Justin's interview on the Dale Jr Download. His confidence and excitement about the change does bring some comfort to it from my view, but still odd nonetheless. I, like I believe many of us thought, just expected Justin to be with Kaulig forever. They seemed like the perfect match. But, sometimes you have to take a chance on yourself and with something that excites you. Justin is doing just that and I commend him for having the guts to do it in such a cutthroat sport.

With that, I don't expect them to light up the track in 2024. I picture another normal year for Justin similar to what he's had at Kaulig. Maybe even staying in contention at drafting tracks or road courses. But it will be a big jump up for Rick Ware Racing. And honestly, they need a full-time, good driver to see if they are capable of being a contending team for the Cup Series playoff. With Justin and support from Roush Fenway Keselowski, I believe they can be contenders given time. I just hope sponsors and Ford (along with RFK) give them the time they need to be a playoff contender.

Trackhouse/Spire:

And I guess Kaulig? Anyway you spin it, it's clear that Trackhouse with Justin Marks at the healm have the balls to try and do anything. Partner them with Spire, who are clearly in this for the long run to compete and not just make some money, and this could be a dangerous combo. Now, add that Kaulig appears to be in play with these two (especially around SVG and giving ZSmith and Hocevar seat time in Xfinity rides) this trio is really mixing things up and I absolutely love it. If this time last year, you told me that SVG would be full commit to NASCAR, Spire had a 3rd charter with three full time drivers, and Trackhouse snagged Zane Smith from Ford to lease to Spire, I would have assumed your crazy. But Trackhouse is daring and Spire is on the rise and Kaulig is still here to trophy hunt? What can go wrong?

Not delivering, of course, can go wrong. Do I anticipate that? No. Will it completely live up to the hype? No, but it will come close. I think SVG is going to need time to adapt to Xfinity cars and oval racing, but he'll contend and dare I say he'll win a race or two. AJ will be an Xfinity contender. Kaulig Cup rights the ship to contending and improvement, but misses the playoffs. Trackhouse gets both Cup cars in the playoffs with a win for the 99 team, and the 1 car winning several races. SVG is a contender in his road course races, and learns a ton on Cup ovals - he'll be in serious consideration for a full-time Cup ride in 2025. And Spire? They get better. They still may be mired in the points around 25th, but we will see more speed and more contention out of them. I even think Corey Lajoie gets his first Cup win at either Atlanta or Daytona.

Whew! That's a lot for just the five things that intrigue me the most. More storylines will come up, there will be new drivers to talk about, and Lord knows we'll have some drama by the time the checkered flag falls on the Clash. All I know is I am ready for the 2024 NASCAR Season to start!